The Ministry of Finance and the National Planning Authority, have developed a strategy to grow Uganda’s economy 10 times in about 15 years, starting with FY 2024/25.
According to the “10-fold Growth Strategy”, Uganda’s economy is expected to grow from about USD 50 billion in 2023 to USD 500 billion by 2040. For an ordinary citizen, this means a significant increase in income, from USD 1,146 (Ush. 4.2 million) a year to about USD 7,000 (Ush. 25.9 million) by 2040. This transformation will turn Uganda into an upper-middle income economy, and consequently a better life for all of us or so, the promise goes.
Such dramatic growth was last experienced in East Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia) from 1965 to 1990, commonly known as the East Asian miracle. The growth was mainly driven by sound economic policies and substantial support of ordinary citizens and business communities according to Jose Edgardo Campos and Hilton L. Root (1996) in their book titled “The Key to the Asian Miracle: Making Shared Growth Credible”.
Specifically, the leaders in East Asian economies convinced the general population to appreciate the benefits that would accrue from economic policies and involved them in policy processes to ensure ownership. The formation of deliberation councils, composed of representatives from private industry, the government, academia, the press, consumer groups, and labour, facilitated communication between the private and public sectors, ensuring that the voice of the people was heard and considered.
As a result, individuals and businesses developed confidence that they would benefit from growth, which in turn mitigated opposition to the policies. The business communities invested in prioritised sectors to build dynamic industrial bases while professionals and intellectuals used their knowledge and skills to drive the growth of their countries rather than leaving for opportunities abroad. In addition, the growth proceeds were trickled down to the general population to ensure improved living standards and political stability.
In Uganda, the business community and ordinary citizens are rarely involved in the development agenda, and most are unaware of it. The agenda often remains at the top government level, seemingly none of ordinary citizens’ business. This has also become a culture for most government programs and projects.
Last year, the Economic Policy Research Centre conducted interviews for a study on the impact of debt-funded projects on household welfare. Respondents indicated that for most projects implemented in their communities, they only learn when a project is taking off or see contractors starting work without any prior information or involvement.
Therefore, it is not surprising that some projects fail to achieve their anticipated objectives. A good example is the Lukaya or Busega market, which businesspeople shunned after spending huge sums of money to construct.
Apparently, if you walked into any government ministry, department, or agency and randomly asked staff about the 10-fold growth strategy, you would be shocked by many people who had no idea. The situation could be worse if you asked ordinary citizens or businesspeople downtown. It may be challenging for the government to deliver the 10-fold growth strategy without the business community and ordinary citizens’ involvement.
Therefore, the government and its technocrats should acknowledge the fundamental role that the business community and ordinary citizens play towards the success of any development agenda, such as the 10-fold growth strategy, and actively involve them. The business community can align their investments to sectors prioritised for growth and support policies to deliver the anticipated growth; professionals and intellectuals can use their knowledge and skills to contribute to the anticipated growth rather than leaving for opportunities elsewhere. It also becomes easier for the population to make sacrifices, like paying taxes to support their country’s growth and have a sense of ownership for such growth.
The country can learn a thing or two from the Asian tigers.