Delivering the Triple Wins in Uganda: Budget, Jobs, And Growth
This study examines the relationship between employment and economic growth in Uganda between 2016 and 2021. It disaggregates the job creation potential of different sectors of the economy considering the difference in sectoral productivity. Further, the study explores the budget investments required by the different sectors to generate jobs.
This is critical because, despite sustained high levels of economic growth over time in Uganda, this growth is not translating into job creation as the country is grappling with high levels of unemployment. Employing the Shapley decomposition approach using the World Bank Job Generation and Decomposition (JoGGs) tool, findings indicate that economic growth for the period has been jobless. Trade and repairs made the biggest negative contribution to the per capita value added and the share of employment. Whereas the agriculture sector is still the major employer, it negatively contributed to the per capita value added for the period.
Overall, output per worker had the largest contribution to the per capita value added. The water sector registered the highest productivity while the activities of households as employers registered the lowest productivity. Further findings show that there was a movement of labour from more productive (e.g. water) to less productive sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry and fisheries). Noteworthy, the dependence rate decreased, signifying an important window for poverty reduction.
By highlighting the negative structural transformation, the study highlights the need to invest in less productive sectors of the economy that are attracting the movement of labour into them. In terms of budgetary requirements, UGX 2,317 is required on average to create one more job with the most productive sectors (water and real estate) requiring the highest government expenditures.
Attached Files
| File | Action |
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| Delivering the Triple Wins in Uganda. Budget, Jobs, and Growth.pdf | Download |
- Version
- File Size 3.07 MB
- Published Apr 8, 2025