Trade

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Import Substitution: How do increased import duties in Uganda affect trade, revenue and welfare?

This paper examines the implications of increased import duties on selected products in a production and supply constrained environment. The study examines the trade (trade creation and diversion), revenue and welfare effects using the WITS-SMART simulation model. 

Business climate deteriorates as the COVID-19 pandemic upsets enterprises and the future outlook remains downcast.

 In the January-March 2020 quarter,tThe Business Climate Index sharply declined by about 59.7 basis points from 104.9 in the previous quarter (October-December 2019) to 45.2. The sharp decline was driven by a fall in business perceptions in all the
sectors was attributed to the global COVID-19 pandemic and the measures implemented to contain its spread. 

Macroeconomic Effects of Budget Deficits in Uganda: A VAR-VECM Approach
This paper investigates the relationship between budget deficits and selected macroeconomic variables for the period 1999 to 2011 using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), pairwise granger causality test and variance decomposition techniques. Results indicate that the variables under study are co-integrated and thus have a long run relationship. 
Tax Evasion, Informality and the Business Environment in Uganda
Uganda has recorded impressive economic growth rates over the last two decades. However despite the sustained period of growth, the tax effort measured by the tax-to-GDP ratio has stagnated between 10-13 percent of GDP over the same period. This paper provides some empirical evidence on how a poor business environment causes tax evasion. 
Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of the East African Community Regional Trade Agreement: A Gravity Model Analysis
This paper investigates the potential impact of the EAC on trade creation and diversion and seeks to establish whether the EAC Regional Trade Agreement has diverted or created trade using an expanded gravity model. Using a panel data set from 2001 to 2011 on seventy countries that trade mainly with the EAC partner states, static and dynamic random effects models were estimated. Results suggest that the implementation of the EAC treaty has created trade, contrary to popular belief that South-South RTAs largely divert trade. 
Economic and Social Upgrading in Tourism Global Production Networks: Findings from Uganda
Over the last decade, Uganda has re-emerged as a global tourism destination after years of instability. The growth of Uganda's tourism Global Production Network (GPN), however, is slow and is characterised by a few elite firms and highly controlled travel through tightly coordinated distribution channels.
Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the EAC Regional Integration on Uganda: A Recursive Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
This paper empirically examines the implications of the implementation of the EAC regional integration on the Ugandan economy. It adopts the General Equilibrium Model (CGE) for the analysis based on the Uganda 2007 Social Accounting Matrix. 
Comparing the Performance of Uganda's Intra-East African Community Trade and Other Trading Blocs: A Gravity Model Analysis
The paper examines the factors that determine Uganda's trade flows and compares the impact and performance of various trade blocs on Uganda's trade patterns and flows. The empirical question is whether Uganda's trade is getting more integrated in the East African Community region or is still dominated by other trading blocs, namely the European Union (EU), Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and Asia. 
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