Research Series (Economic Policy Research Centre) ISSN 2411-4499

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Tax Revenue Effects of Sectoral Growth and Public Expenditure in Uganda

This paper contributes to a growing strand of literature on the determinants of tax revenue performance in developing countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. More specifically it estimates the tax elasticities of sectoral output growth and public expenditure.

The Challenges of Macroeconomic Management of Natural Resource Revenues in Developing Countries: The Case of Uganda

The paper focuses on oil discoveries in Uganda and their expected impact on government revenues. The authors used a calibrated dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model (DSGE) to analyze alternative spending policies of natural resource revenues.

The paper provides insights on the tax-benefit implications of the FY2014/15 tax proposals as well as the 2012/13 income tax reform. 

Youth unemployment continues to be a developmental challenge not only in Uganda but in several sub Saharan countries. At least 64 percent of the total unemployed persons are youth aged 18-30 years. As the government struggles to look for solutions to the unemployment challenge, one approach has been the promotion of self-employment through the establishment of National Youth Funds. Specifically, the Youth Venture Capital Fund (UYVCF) worth UGX 25bn (about US$ 10 million) was introduced in 2011 and more recently, in September 2013, government significantly boosted youth schemes by allocating UGX 265 billion (about US$ 100 million) to the Youth Livelihood Programme (YLP) over a five-year period.

A Review of Uganda's Public Finance Management Reforms (2012 To 2014): Are the Reforms Yielding the Expected Outcomes?

Despite the enactment of a number of public finance management reforms since the 1990s, misappropriation of public funds in Uganda remains a challenge. For example, scandals in the Office of the Prime Minister where UGX 60 billion was stolen and UGX 340 billion was lost to ghost pensioners in the Ministry of Public Services prompted several donor governments to suspend budget support to Uganda in 2012. In response to this and other challenges, the government took advantage of provisions in existing laws and regulations to initiate a number of new reforms and measures to further strengthen public financial management and improve public service delivery.

Inflation Dynamics and Agricultural Supply Shocks in Uganda

We estimate the contribution of agricultural supply shocks to inflation in Uganda. Using monthly data for the time period January 2000 to December 2012, we develop an empirical model for inflation processes in Uganda. The model is estimated as a single equation that includes lagged vector error correction terms from the money, external, and domestic agricultural markets. 

Uganda's Tea Sub-Sector: A Comparative Review of Trends, Challenges and Coordination Failures

 The tea sector has performed far below its potential largely owing to poor coordination of activities in the sector. Uganda has about 200,000 hectares suitable for tea production, but only 14 percent (28,000 hectares) is utilised both by small holder and estate owners.


Uganda's progress towards poverty reduction during the last decade 2002/3-2012/13: Is the gap between leading and lagging areas widening or narrowing?
Using repeated cross-sectional household survey data, this paper reveals that Uganda sustained the growth in improvements in average living standards during the last decade albeit with persistent regional disparities.
Macroeconomic Effects of Budget Deficits in Uganda: A VAR-VECM Approach
This paper investigates the relationship between budget deficits and selected macroeconomic variables for the period 1999 to 2011 using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), pairwise granger causality test and variance decomposition techniques. Results indicate that the variables under study are co-integrated and thus have a long run relationship. 
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