The Uganda Business Climate Index

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The East African drought subdues expected improvement in the business environment (October - December 2016)

This is the sixth consecutive quarter that the business climate index has indicated unfavourable business performance and points to persistent vulnerabilities and uncertainties in the business environment.

The Business Climate Index continued to project pessimistic sentiments regarding the business environment across all sectors during the current quarter (July – September 2016).

This issue presents a brief overview of the findings from the business climate
surveys conducted between April - June 2012 and July-September 2015.

Business climate deteriorates further as fears of the South Sudan conflict grips businesses in Uganda (April - June 2016)

The Uganda business climate index (UBCI) declined to 79.2 from 93.5, a persistence of the negative sentiment registered in last quarter (January – March 2016) and the worst decline since 2012. The negative sentiment in the business environment could be emanating from a number of sources such as; lag effects of the electoral cycle, the adverse effects of exchange rate depreciation and the re-ignition of political strife in South Sudan - a major export destination.

The negative sentiment in the business environment was largely driven by some persistent challenges in doing business and some new emerging ones.

The Uganda business climate index (UBCI) improved by 4.9 index points to 99.7 during the October – December 2015 quarter from 94.8 during the July – September 2015 quarter.

Elevated macroeconomic risks hurt business environment perceptions (July - Sept 2015)

The Uganda business climate index declined by 22.4
points to 94.8 during the July – September 2015
quarter from 117.2 during the July – September
2014 quarter.

Low inflation, consumer confidence sustain favourable business conditions (July - September 2014)

The continued improvement in the business climate was driven largely by: low inflation which ensured favourable input and product prices and stronger consumer confidence, which in turn drove business expectations of improved profitability The continued improvement in the business climate was driven largely by: low inflation which ensured favourable input and product prices and stronger consumer confidence, which in turn drove business expectations of improved profitability

The improvement in the business climate was sustained by a variety of factors including: stronger than expected consumer demand, stable macroeconomic environment characterized by easing inflation...

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