Research Series (Economic Policy Research Centre) ISSN 2411-4499

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Inflation Dynamics and Agricultural Supply Shocks in Uganda

We estimate the contribution of agricultural supply shocks to inflation in Uganda. Using monthly data for the time period January 2000 to December 2012, we develop an empirical model for inflation processes in Uganda. The model is estimated as a single equation that includes lagged vector error correction terms from the money, external, and domestic agricultural markets. 

Uganda's Tea Sub-Sector: A Comparative Review of Trends, Challenges and Coordination Failures

 The tea sector has performed far below its potential largely owing to poor coordination of activities in the sector. Uganda has about 200,000 hectares suitable for tea production, but only 14 percent (28,000 hectares) is utilised both by small holder and estate owners.


Uganda's progress towards poverty reduction during the last decade 2002/3-2012/13: Is the gap between leading and lagging areas widening or narrowing?
Using repeated cross-sectional household survey data, this paper reveals that Uganda sustained the growth in improvements in average living standards during the last decade albeit with persistent regional disparities.
Macroeconomic Effects of Budget Deficits in Uganda: A VAR-VECM Approach
This paper investigates the relationship between budget deficits and selected macroeconomic variables for the period 1999 to 2011 using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), pairwise granger causality test and variance decomposition techniques. Results indicate that the variables under study are co-integrated and thus have a long run relationship. 
Smallholder Food Crop Commercialization in Uganda: Panel Survey Evidence
A number of policy initiatives in Uganda's agriculture sector have been tailored towards transforming the sector from subsistence to commercial production. Owing to this background, this paper examines the drivers of food crop commercialization in Uganda. The paper examines the seasonality of participation; provides results of two different measures to proxy commercialization, namely; the likelihood of participation, and intensity of participation, in the market for selected crops; and finally, investigates these issues using a new panel dataset for Uganda. 
Determinants of Household's Choice of Cooking Energy in Uganda
High dependency on biomass has been associated with energy poverty in Uganda with successful interventions to modern energy expected to results in economic transformation. This paper examines utilization of various forms of cooking energy sources among households using data from the 2005/6 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS). Results indicate that utilization of modern energy sources was only by 4 percent of households. 
Tax Evasion, Informality and the Business Environment in Uganda
Uganda has recorded impressive economic growth rates over the last two decades. However despite the sustained period of growth, the tax effort measured by the tax-to-GDP ratio has stagnated between 10-13 percent of GDP over the same period. This paper provides some empirical evidence on how a poor business environment causes tax evasion. 
Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of the East African Community Regional Trade Agreement: A Gravity Model Analysis
This paper investigates the potential impact of the EAC on trade creation and diversion and seeks to establish whether the EAC Regional Trade Agreement has diverted or created trade using an expanded gravity model. Using a panel data set from 2001 to 2011 on seventy countries that trade mainly with the EAC partner states, static and dynamic random effects models were estimated. Results suggest that the implementation of the EAC treaty has created trade, contrary to popular belief that South-South RTAs largely divert trade. 
Accelerating Growth and Maintaining Intergenerational Equity Using Oil Resources in Uganda
Uganda discovered commercially viable oil deposits in 2006. Estimated oil resources as of December 2013 stood at 3.5 billion barrels. Since the discoveries, there has been much public debate on the types of public policies that the Government of Uganda (GoU) can implement in order to avoid or minimize the economic, social and political dislocations that have usually accompanied the exploitation of oil and gas in other African countries. 
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